+EV Calculator

Enter your bet size, market odds, and your best win estimate to quickly see if a bet is worth it.

Inputs

$
Range$0 – $1,000

Converted

%
Quick adjust with slider

Use your own win estimate (your best guess), not the sportsbook number.

Expected Value Results

Positive EV (+EV)

This looks like a value bet because your win estimate is higher than the win rate needed to break even. Quick check: you estimate winning 55.00 out of 100 bets, and you need 52.38 out of 100 to break even. Difference: 2.62 points. If you made this same bet many times, you would win about $5.00 on average for every $100 staked.

EV Amount

$5.00

EV %

5.00%

Break-Even %

52.38%

Difference vs Break-Even

2.62%

Profit if Win

$90.90

Loss if Lose

-$100.00

Copy a link that opens this calculator with your current values.

How to Use This +EV Calculator

Set your stake, enter the market odds in any format, and input your projected win probability. The tool then compares your projection against the break-even probability and computes expected value in dollars and percent.

How EV Is Calculated

EV = (P(win) x Profit if Win) - (P(lose) x Stake)

P(lose) = 1 - P(win). Edge is calculated as: your estimated probability - market break-even probability.

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Expected Value FAQs

What is a +EV bet?

A +EV bet is a wager where your expected value is above zero. It means your projected long-term return is positive given your estimated win probability and the market price.

How is expected value calculated?

Expected value is calculated as: (win probability x profit if win) - (lose probability x stake). If the result is positive, the bet is +EV.

What is break-even probability?

Break-even probability is the minimum win rate needed to have zero expected value at the current odds. If your estimate is higher than break-even, the bet may be +EV.